During the 1990’s an increase in oil prices of $10 reduced growth of real GDP by approximately one-half percent. Hence the concern after 2001 as oil rose from $20 to $40, then panic as oil rose from $40 to $80. At $120, oil prices are up 6x from the 1990’s average. Where is the global recession most economists expected if oil prices skyrocketed? (Matthew Simmons was one of the few experts who questioned this consensus, saying that rising oil prices were not necessarily poisonous to GDP.)
Source: Fabius Maximus.